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Morrison is Hoping for an Unexpected Result in the Election, but ‘uncommitted’ Voters Seldom Change Their Minds in the Last Week

The number of voters the Coalition is trying to attract in the last days of the campaign varies, depending on how the target voters are defined. But the historical accounts of success cited by commentators do not agree. The last political statement of the party leaders in the media presentation is to build support among the voters who are not fully involved, to make the voters “gently involved” away from others, and to make those who are not yet interested in the party.

These are the polls that voters correctly classify as “don’t know”, or perhaps “don’t say”, rather than “undecided” – a category that can affect those who have expressed a choice but not used it. hand. The media will always question the effectiveness of leadership appeals. It will be difficult to explain the evidence, based on different concepts of “conviction”. The 2004 election is a key point of reference. But the evidence of early backstabbing, which is often credited with saving John Howard that year, requires careful consideration. Polls are designed to reduce the number of “don’t know”
The poll was designed with the aim of minimizing the number of “don’t know” responses. The more “uninformed” people are, the more uncertain they are about voting intentions and the more difficult it is to decide what to do with them.

Should voters ignore them because they won’t vote or vote differently? Or find another way to find out how they can vote? Fortunately, pollsters also have ways to keep the number of unknowns low. Respondents who refused to say what they intended to vote for were often asked which party they ‘leaned on’. As a result of this step, none of the polls return a “don’t know” rate higher than 7%. King Charles III May Ban Forbid Prince Harry From His Coronation if He Criticizes Queen Camilla in His Memoir

None of the voters said that the “don’t know” part was necessary before asking the “leaning” question. But the actual ratio is higher than 7%.

The best way to minimize the “unknowns” is to not record them at all. Jim Reed, who conducts the Resolve poll for the Sydney Morning Herald and the Age, insists that respondents choose party or independent: there is no ‘knowing’ allowed.

But what about respondents who seem to be “decided” but not “involved”? However, after forcing respondents to choose, Resolve asked respondents, “How firm are you in your vote?”

In its latest poll, 86% of respondents were “involved”, 14% “not involved” – a number greater than the “don’t know” reported by other polls.

Pollsters have their own way of defining potential voters who are still “playing around.” They are concerned, for example, about “backsliding” voters about Labour/Albanians or Liberal/Morrison.

The leading parties think about their voters who can come from the minority or independent parties, or between Labor and Liberal. But they also hope to convince voters who would first vote for other parties or independents, to encourage them to get their preferred bipartisan vote. A Look at the Politics of Pandemic

The number of members who want to influence is different, but higher than the first “don’t know” or “no commitment” decision. Before the Liberal political speech, the prime minister estimated that the number of voters “are undecided or choose a small group of independents” at around 25%.

Over the weekend in Australia, Dennis Shanahan put that number even higher. To those who intend to vote for small groups or independents, he explains, adding those who “go public”, gathering “at least one vote in three” .

Not Enough “Indecision” to Undermine Labour’s Progress

When the proportion of “don’t know” is low and the difference between the two chosen parties is large – as it is in some polls, but not all – the probability of “don’t know” will be different. big. In theory, Labor needs 51.8% of the bipartisan vote to win.

So even if the uninitiated combine 2:1 in support of the Coalition, that will reduce the chances of Morgan’s election from six points (47-53) to four (48-52) – not enough enough to prevent a. Many users. In Newspoll, it will be reduced to six (47-53).

A “no commitment” vote gives union members more hope. But caution is required.

It is not clear that the number of “non-participating” voters is higher now than in other elections. In fact, there have been few polls since last week it was the “non-committal” voters who turned the tide. 카지노사이트

Take 2004 With a Grain of Salt

For those who care about the storm, the 2004 election is very interesting.

In the run-up to the election with about a week to go, according to the report, Howard took Labor on the wrong foot with his forestry policy; The job shot itself in the other foot when Mark Latham, a day later, came out to grab Howard’s hand and pull Howard to him.

According to Liberal campaign manager Brian Loughnane, Latham’s hand turned out more at Liberal Party headquarters than anything else during the six-week campaign, and “gathered people’s doubts and skepticism.” has about Mark Latham”.

But the support of the Coalition was not high at the end of the campaign, but in the first few weeks. He won with a majority: 24 seats. Long before last weekend, the Coalition had already won. Whether or not ‘uncommitted’ is preventing Labor from winning this time, their role in securing Howard’s victory in 2004 is more a matter of liberal history than political science.

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